🏦 End The Fed... WTF

US debt, money printing and inflation, charted against Bitcoin

₿ line denotes Bitcoin genesis block in 2009

Did you know? The Federal Reserve isn’t actually part of the US government.
Despite its official-sounding name, the Fed is a private central bank owned by member banks and largely controlled by unelected bankers. It operates with little transparency, making decisions that affect your savings, the economy, and the value of the US dollar—often behind closed doors. WTF.

Bitcoin is different.
It’s open, decentralized, and belongs to everyone. No government, corporation, or group of bankers can manipulate its supply or rules. Every transaction is public and the code is open-source, so anyone can verify what’s happening. With Bitcoin, monetary power shifts away from secretive institutions and back to the people. You actually own your money—and the rules are the same for everyone, everywhere.
US national debt
—
Projected forward from the last quarterly FRED reading at its recent rate of growth.
Per US citizen
—
Same projection, divided by the latest population estimate.
Sats per dollar
—
What one dollar buys of a bitcoin, refreshed every 30 seconds.
Blocks to next halving
—
Issuance is cut in half every 210,000 blocks. No vote, no meeting.

Ⅰ · The Debt

What the government owes, what it costs to carry, and how fast it is growing.

US National Debt: Up and to the Right

The US public debt has exploded since leaving the gold standard.
Bitcoin genesis block changed everything.

Data: FRED TPD.

WTF does this mean?

The US government borrows more from the Federal Reserve every year, pushing the national debt ever higher. This debt is paid for by creating new dollars or raising taxes. For everyday people, more debt means future inflation, higher taxes, or both. The more dollars that exist, the less each one is worth—so your savings buy less over time. Bitcoin, with its fixed supply, can't be inflated away by politicians or bankers.

Your Share of It

The debt divided by everyone alive in the country, in the dollars of the day and in today's dollars.
Between 1966 and 1980 the inflation-adjusted figure did not move.

Data: FRED TPD ÷ FRED POPTHM, restated with FRED CPI.

WTF does this mean?

Dividing by the population makes the total imaginable, but the raw figure flatters the past: $1,700 in 1966 was not a smaller version of today's six-figure share, it was a different currency. The second line restates every year in today's money, which is why the two meet at the right-hand edge.

The flat stretch to 1980 is the part worth sitting with. Nominal debt per citizen more than doubled over those years while the real burden barely moved — the borrowing was not repaid, it was devalued, and whoever held dollars through the 1970s paid the difference. Since 2008 the trick has stopped covering it: the inflation-adjusted line has more than doubled as well.

The Annual Shortfall

Every year the government spends more than it collects, it borrows the difference.
The last surplus was in fiscal year 2001.

Data: FRED FYFSD.

WTF does this mean?

Bars below the line are deficits: years the Treasury spent money it did not have and issued bonds to cover the gap. Bars above the line are surpluses; there have been four since 1970, all of them between 1998 and 2001. The national debt chart above is just this chart added up, year after year, with interest.

What the Debt Costs to Carry

Interest is now one of the largest single items in the federal budget.
It buys nothing. It funds no program. It is just the fee on the borrowing.

Data: FRED federal interest payments.

WTF does this mean?

For most of the 2010s the debt was enormous but cheap, because rates were near zero. When the Fed raised rates to fight the inflation it had helped create, the government had to refinance trillions at the new, higher rates. Annual interest ran past $1 trillion in 2024, roughly matching what the country spends on defense. Rising rates and rising debt compound each other, which is the part that does not resolve on its own.

US Debt-to-GDP Ratio: Borrowing Beyond Our Means

National debt as a share of the economy.
Over 100% means the US owes more than it produces in a year.

Data: FRED Debt/GDP.

WTF does this mean?

This chart shows how much the US government owes compared to the size of the entire economy. When debt-to-GDP exceeds 100%, the country owes more than it produces in a whole year. Historically, this level of debt has only been seen during major wars. Today it's the new normal—funded by endless money printing. Bitcoin can't be diluted to pay off government IOUs.

The Debt, Priced in Bitcoin

How many times over would you need to buy every bitcoin that will ever exist to cover the national debt?
A decade ago, more than two thousand times over. The number keeps falling.

Data: FRED TPD & FRED BTC/USD. Log scale.

WTF does this mean?

The debt keeps growing in dollars, so measuring it in dollars tells you very little. Measured against all 21 million bitcoin at market price, it has shrunk by more than two orders of magnitude in a decade — not because the debt got smaller, but because the yardstick got stronger. This is what it looks like when you change what you are measuring with.

Ⅱ · The Printing

Where new dollars come from, who creates them, and how that compares to an issuance schedule nobody controls.

US M2 Money Supply: Print, Print, Print

The money printer never sleeps.
Since 2009, trillions have been created out of thin air.

Data: FRED M2.

WTF does this mean?

This chart shows how fast new dollars are being created. When the Fed and banks create new money, the dollars in your pocket or savings lose value. This is why prices for groceries, gas, and homes seem to climb endlessly. Bitcoin is different: its supply is capped forever at 21 million, making it immune to endless printing.

The Fed's Balance Sheet

Assets the Federal Reserve bought with money it created for the purpose.
Under $1 trillion before 2008. Near $9 trillion at the 2022 peak.

Data: FRED WALCL.

WTF does this mean?

Quantitative easing works like this: the Fed creates dollars that did not exist, buys Treasury bonds and mortgage securities with them, and those dollars enter the financial system. The purchases show up here as assets. Every step up in this line is a moment the Fed decided the economy needed more money, and created it. The step in 2020 is the largest in the institution's history.

The Fed Buying the Government's Debt

Federal debt held by the Federal Reserve itself.
One arm of the state issues the bond; another creates the money to buy it.

Data: FRED FDHBFRBN.

WTF does this mean?

When a foreign government or a pension fund buys Treasuries, existing savings are being lent to the state. When the Fed buys them, the money is created on the spot. Economists call the second one debt monetization, and it is the mechanism behind every currency that has ever been inflated away. The Fed does not buy directly from the Treasury — the bonds pass through dealers first — but the effect on the money supply is the same.

Two Issuance Schedules

The annual growth rate of the dollar supply, against Bitcoin's.
One is decided in a meeting. The other was decided in 2008 and has not changed since.

Data: FRED M2; Bitcoin issuance computed from the block subsidy schedule. Starts at 2013 — Bitcoin's first years ran above 25% and flatten everything after them.

WTF does this mean?

This is the single clearest difference between the two systems. The dollar line moves with policy — spiking above 25% in 2020, turning negative in 2022 when the Fed reversed course. The Bitcoin line steps down every four years on a schedule published before anyone owned a single coin, and it steps down whether the market is booming or crashing. Bitcoin's issuance fell below the dollar's long-run average years ago, and it is still headed toward zero.

Ⅲ · The Prices

The part you actually feel: what the money buys, and how long you have to work for it.

US Consumer Price Index: The Cost of Living Spiral

As money supply grows, so does the price of everything you need.
Bitcoin fixes this.

Data: FRED CPI.

WTF does this mean?

The CPI tracks the price of everyday goods and services. As the government creates more dollars, the prices of things you need—like food, rent, and healthcare—go up. Your paycheck and savings buy less every year, even if they look bigger in dollar terms. Bitcoin's fixed supply helps protect your money from this hidden tax called inflation.
Loading CPI data…

Hours of Work to Buy the Median Home

The median US house price, divided by the average hourly wage.
Priced in time instead of dollars, the picture changes.

Data: FRED MSPUS ÷ FRED AHETPI.

WTF does this mean?

Wages rise in nominal terms too, so comparing house prices across decades in raw dollars is meaningless. This divides the median sale price by the average hourly wage for production and non-supervisory workers — most of the workforce. The result is the number of hours the typical worker must be paid for to cover the sticker price of a median house, before tax, before interest, before a single other expense. It was under 8,000 hours through the 1960s. It has not been that low since.

Ⅳ · The Rates

The price of money is not set by a market. It is set by a committee, twelve times a year.

Federal Funds Rate: Manipulating the Price of Money

The Fed sets interest rates behind closed doors.
Your savings pay the price.

Data: FRED FEDFUNDS.

WTF does this mean?

The Federal Reserve controls the interest rate at which banks lend to each other overnight. When they slash rates to near zero, your savings account earns almost nothing—while asset prices and the cost of living soar. This artificially cheap money fuels debt, speculation, and bubbles. Bitcoin doesn't have a central committee deciding the cost of money—its monetary policy is set in code and enforced by math.

The Real Rate: What Savers Actually Earn

The federal funds rate minus inflation.
Below the line, cash loses value even while it earns interest.

Data: FRED FEDFUNDS − CPI year-over-year.

WTF does this mean?

A 5% savings rate during 7% inflation is a 2% loss. This chart does that subtraction across the whole history of the series. The long stretch below zero after 2009, and the deep trough in 2021 and 2022, is the period in which holding dollars was a guaranteed loss of purchasing power. Economists call this financial repression: the debtor with the printing press benefits, the saver funds it, and no vote is taken.

Ⅴ · Who Ends Up Holding It

New money does not reach everyone at once. It reaches whoever is standing closest to it first.

Top 1% vs Bottom 50%

Share of total US household net worth, from the Fed's own distributional accounts.
The gap widened through every round of easing.

Data: FRED top 1% & bottom 50%.

WTF does this mean?

This is the Cantillon effect, named for an 18th-century banker who noticed it first. New money is not sprinkled evenly across the population. It enters through financial markets, so it lifts the price of the things already-wealthy people own — stocks, bonds, property — before it reaches wages. By the time prices catch up at the grocery store, the gain has already been captured. The chart is the Federal Reserve's own data on the result.

Ⅵ · The Alternative

A supply schedule that cannot be changed by anyone who benefits from changing it.

USD vs Bitcoin: The Real Purchasing Power

The dollar's decline, measured by what it actually buys.
CPI-based purchasing power vs. Bitcoin's price in USD.

Data: FRED CPI & FRED BTC/USD.

WTF does this mean?

This chart compares the shrinking value of the dollar (purchasing power) to the rise of Bitcoin. As the government prints more money, each dollar buys less—while Bitcoin, with limited supply, becomes more valuable. For the average person, this means holding dollars gets riskier over time, but holding Bitcoin can protect your wealth from inflation and debasement.

Bitcoin Price (Last 30 Days)

Closing price of BTC/USD on Coinbase.
Market data updated daily.

Data: FRED BTC/USD.
Loading price data…

Bitcoin Supply Curve: 21 Million. Forever.

Unlike fiat, Bitcoin's supply is mathematically fixed.
Every four years, new coins per block are cut in half.

Data: Bitcoin Wiki. Computed from the block subsidy schedule.

WTF does this mean?

This is the opposite of the dollar: Bitcoin's supply will never exceed 21 million coins. No one—not governments, not developers—can create more. Over time, fewer new coins are made, making Bitcoin scarcer and protecting its value. In a world where the dollar supply keeps soaring, Bitcoin offers certainty and true scarcity.

Ⅶ · How We Got Here

Every line on this page has a date attached to it. These are the dates.

  • 1913

    The Federal Reserve Act is signed on December 23, creating a central bank with the power to issue currency. The plan behind it was drafted at a private meeting on Jekyll Island two years earlier, attended by representatives of the largest banks of the era.

  • 1933–34

    Executive Order 6102 requires Americans to hand in their gold coin and bullion at $20.67 an ounce. The following year the Gold Reserve Act revalues gold at $35 an ounce — a 41% devaluation of the dollar, applied after the public had already sold.

  • 1944

    At Bretton Woods, world currencies are pegged to the dollar and the dollar is pegged to gold. The dollar becomes the world's reserve currency on the promise that it remains redeemable.

  • 1971

    On August 15, Nixon suspends the dollar's convertibility into gold, calling the measure temporary. It was not. Nearly every chart on this page changes slope within a few years of this date — which is the entire premise of wtfhappenedin1971.com.

  • 1981

    To break double-digit inflation, Paul Volcker pushes the effective federal funds rate above 19%. It works, and it triggers a severe recession. You can see both on the rates chart above.

  • 2008

    Lehman Brothers fails in September. Within three months the Fed's balance sheet goes from under $1 trillion to over $2 trillion, and the phrase "too big to fail" enters ordinary conversation.

  • 2009

    On January 3, the Bitcoin genesis block is mined. Its coinbase parameter contains that day's Times headline: Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks. The timestamp is the point, and it is unforgeable.

  • 2020–22

    The Fed cuts to zero and restarts asset purchases at unprecedented scale. M2 rises from roughly $15.4 trillion in February 2020 to roughly $21.7 trillion at the 2022 peak — about 40% more dollars in two years. Scroll back up to the M2 chart; that step is this.

  • 2022

    CPI inflation reaches 9.1% year over year in June, the highest reading since 1981. The Fed raises rates faster than at any point in four decades to bring it down.

  • 2024

    Annual interest on the federal debt runs past $1 trillion, roughly matching total defense spending. The fourth Bitcoin halving cuts the block subsidy to 3.125 BTC on April 20, on schedule, as it has every time.

  • 2025 · March

    Executive Order 14233 establishes a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and a Digital Asset Stockpile, held by the Treasury and funded from forfeited coin rather than open-market purchases. Whatever one makes of it, the government now holds a reserve in the asset this page uses as its yardstick.

  • 2025 · Autumn

    The debt passes $38 trillion on October 23. The Fed cuts rates at three consecutive meetings, and on December 1 ends quantitative tightening and resumes buying Treasury bills. The balance sheet stops shrinking and turns back up — you can find that inflection on the WALCL chart above.

  • 2026

    Kevin Warsh is sworn in as the seventeenth Fed chair on May 22, confirmed 54–45 in the closest such vote in the institution's history; Jerome Powell stays on as a governor. On August 19 the national debt tops $40 trillion, having doubled in under a decade.